Politics

Democrats are prone to lose home seats however retain their majority

U.S. Spokeswoman Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat from California, speaks during a press conference at the Campaign for Democratic Committee headquarters in Washington, DC, United States on Tuesday, November 3, 2020.

Alyssa Schukar | Bloomberg | Getty Images

According to NBC News, the Democrats will retain their majority in the US House of Representatives in the next Congress.

But after a string of early returnees after the 2020 election, the party is likely to have fewer seats in January than it does now.

NBC estimates that Democrats will have 226 House seats while Republicans will have 209. The numbers could change as NBC said the parties could end up having up to eight seats more or less than those projections. (Eight fewer seats for Democrats would put them to 218, the minimum they need for a majority).

In races launched by NBC, Republicans flipped six seats. Democrats won 208 seats, the GOP promoted 195, and 32 remain inappropriate.

So far, Republicans have achieved a Democratic majority largely by gaining ground after losing control of the House in 2018. The GOP will defeat at least seven House Democrats, including six first-term representatives. You will also get a seat previously occupied by independent MP Justin Amash.

Republican Nancy Mace is set to beat Joe Cunningham, first Democratic MP in South Carolina 1st District. GOP candidate Stephanie Bice will defeat first Democratic MP Kendra Horn in Oklahoma's 5th District. Republican Michelle Fischbach will prevail against longtime Democratic MP Collin Peterson in Minnesota 7th District GOP candidate Yvette Herrell will win her rematch against first-time Democratic MP Xochitl Torres Small in New Mexico's 2nd District. Republican Ashley Hinson will defeat first-term Democratic MP Abby Finkenauer in Iowa 1st GOP nominee Maria Elvira Salazar will beat freshman Rep. Donna Shalala in Florida’s 27th district. Republican Peter Meijer will win the race to replace Amash with Democrat Hillary Scholten. Republican Carlos Gimenez will evict Democratic MP Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida’s 26th district.

Democrats have also won two seats in races from NBC News. Deborah Ross and Kathy Manning will win races for the 2nd and 6th Districts of North Carolina. Both seats held by the GOP became friendlier to Democrats following a state redistribution.

At the start of election day, forecasters predicted that the Democrats would win seats in the House of Representatives and challenge the Senate majority. Now Democrats may have a slim majority in the House of Representatives as states count the final results to see if Republicans retain their advantage in the Senate.

Republicans may have benefited from certain swing voters who support Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and GOP congressional candidates, as well as a lesser office advantage for the House Democrats, said Kyle Kondik, editor-in-chief of the non-partisan Sabato Crystal Ball. He believes the Democrats "expected a better overall environment than what they got".

"In the second straight presidential election, Donald Trump was not the choice he could have made – and in fact, the turnout of Trump-loving voters likely helped Republicans run the House and Senate races as a whole," Kondik said in one E-mail.

In a letter to House Democrats on Wednesday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi projected confidence in Biden winning the presidential election. Remaining numbers in states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona will determine whether he or President Donald Trump will occupy the White House for the next four years.

She said the Democratic House and White House "would have the opportunity to make extraordinary strides" in areas such as health care, infrastructure and clean government. She admitted a "challenging election" and said Democratic candidates "made us proud".

In a separate caucus appeal Thursday, Pelosi told Democrats that the party "didn't win every battle, but we won the war," according to NBC News.

"In 2018 we won 40 seats. We went deep into the Trump counties when Trump wasn't on the ballot. But with Trump on the ballot, we clearly knew it was going to be a steeper climb," NBC reported quoted a source on the call.

Of the nine Democratic-owned districts listed as throwing races in the impartial Cook Political Report, Republicans on NBC projects will win at least four. Five are unsolved.

Cook viewed 17 republican seats and an independent district as problems. The GOP has won all nine races NBC has called so far.

The House Democrats wanted to expand their reach in the 2020 election and seek a number of Republican seats in states such as Texas, North Carolina, and Florida. After a much-discussed move by the Democrats to win GOP seats in Texas, the party turned none of the districts it targeted (although NBC has forecast no results in at least two of them).

The party also failed to win seats in Florida, and two South Florida House Democrats are currently running in races that have not yet been launched by NBC.

Even so, NBC Projects will hold Democrats a number of key districts they won in 2018. Representatives Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred are expected to keep their seats in Texas.

Rep. Lucy McBath will win re-election in Georgia, as will Reps Elissa Slotkin and Haley Stevens from Michigan, Josh Harder from California, Kim Schrier from Washington, Jared Golden from Maine, and Andy Kim and Tom Malinowski from New Jersey.

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