As of 7 a.m., Biden in Wisconsin holds a very tight 0.3% lead. The pending vote, however, appears to be an early vote in urban areas, which Biden strongly favored. There may be enough Biden votes left to carry him past the 1% margin that would protect against a recount.
Biden's margin in Nevada is also below 1%, but the majority of the remaining votes appear to be in counties that include Reno and Las Vegas. There doesn't seem to be any reason to expect that Biden's closing balance in the silver state won't be higher.
Next door, Arizona represents the one flip officially called by AP. With a lead of 5% and 82%, it's easy to like Biden's position in the state. And as a rare ray of hope in the Senate, Mark Kelly appears to have a similar advantage.
But it is the states that have yet to be named that are interesting – in a good way. On a late row of votes from Wayne County, Detroit, Biden is on Trump's heels in Michigan, and there are more such votes to count. Pennsylvania has a massive 2 million block of mail on ballot papers that alone could make up the field. Things in both states are likely to change dramatically as the day goes on. And perhaps the biggest surprise that remains is that Georgia stays in the game … and indeed it looks like trends are favoring Biden.
This means that the evening may look too much like 2016, but the morning doesn't. Biden has already turned Arizona over. He seems ready to take Wisconsin. That alone only gets Biden a single EV from clinching. Add Michigan and that's a win. However, the more likely scenario at this point seems to be even more states switching to blue. Biden could still search the Rust Belt states for a solid 305 electric vehicles, preventing all gimmicks from being chosen in a single state. If Georgia gets through, Biden could end in 321, a crucial win.
Tuesday could indeed have been a "dark night of the soul" and he should never have looked closely. But in the end this thing might not be really close. Now go have breakfast.